Though Europe’s green energy transition is gaining pace, natural gas demand is seen grow significantly. Wood Mackenzie advises European utilities to share some cross-hub price risk with LNG producers, or else they risk losing market space to international oil companies or state-run energy majors like Gazprom.
The U.S. shale revolution and falling capital costs for renewables are reshaping the power mix both domestically and abroad, the International Energy Agency (IEA) noted. Future production growth and exports will depend on the complementary build-out of oil and gas pipelines, as well as LNG terminals.
Drone strikes have reduced Saudi Arabia’s oil output by half which is feared to have reverberations on global energy markets. An increase in oil prices is likely to lead to a corresponding rise in gas and electricity prices, which will be reflected in higher tariffs for customers in the UK and most western economies.
Rising dry gas production in the United States will be sufficient to meet demand for power generation and exports at a lower price than forecast. With this assement, the U.S. Energy Administration (EIA) lowered its Henry Hub spot price forecast for 2020 by 20 cents to an average of $2.55 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
Northwest European near-curve gas prices have fallen in recent days. With the TTF Oct-19 trading as low as 3.86 $/mmbtu, this low price drives up demand for LNG shipping to higher-priced markets in Asia. Energy Aspects says the TTF Oct-19 contract has already priced in much of the incremental demand from the power sector switching to gas from coal.
Nearly 16 gigawatt of utility-scale gas power generation has been added in Florida between 2008 and 2018 – the most in any U.S. state. The share of natural gas in Florida’s energy mix surged from 47% to 72%, and EIA analysts anticipate gas-fired generation will continue to displace less cost-competitive plants fuelled by coal and petroleum liquids.
Wind and solar power are forecast to outperform combined-cycle gas power plants in most parts of the United States on a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) basis through 2040. However, Wood Mackenzie finds that combined-cycle gas power stations beat renewables on cost in Florida, the Midcontinent and in some spots in PJM West where gas prices are exceptionally low.
Russia's Novatek and Japan’s Saibu Gas have signed a Heads of Agreement (HoA) to set up a joint venture to market LNG and natural gas to end customers. This agreement will include the development of gas-powered generation in Japan, bunkering business in Asia, and the construction and operation a new storage tank at the Hibiki LNG terminal.