Investments in carbon capture storage (CCS) for new-built and operational power plants has a softening effect on carbon prices - albeit not a big one, Energy Brainpool's chief analyst Tobias Federico estimates.
"The scale of the price effect largely depends on how widespread the implementation of CCS technology will be implemented in the power generation sector," he told Gas-to-Power Journal in an interview.
BDEW, Germany's energy and water association, today released data on the country's power generation mix. Gas-fired generation was virtually unchanged at 14% in 2011. The share of renewable energies in the country's overall power generation mix surged by 20% in 2011, according to BDEW statistics. In 2011, renewable energies have already overtaken nuclear plants (18%) and coal-fired power generation (19%) in terms of market share.
Natural gas is forecast to overtake coal as the predominant fuel in power generation in the U.S. by 2025. Gas will become the world's No. 2 overall fuel source due to its abundant supply and the political backing for less carbon emission intensive gas-fired power plants, according to the latest long-term outlook published by ExxonMobil Corp today.
More regulations under Dodd Frank, MiFID and EMIR may prompt financial trading houses to shy away from commodities. Trading on less liquid market hubs for gas and electricity may take a battering once the new regulation comes into force in 2012.
"Speculators might exit, liquidity might take a plunge and trading – particularly in less liquid commodity markets – might be down to the utilities again," Louis Caron, global executive lead, energy and commodity risk at RiskAdvisory/SAS Group told 'Gas-to-Power Journal' in an interview today.
European utilities are profiting from a rebound in a power prices and production margins, Societe Generale commodity analysts said, estimating that between 20% and 50% of hedge for 2012 has been achieved by higher generation margins post Fukushima. "Some utilities have delayed their hedging strategy and will thus benefit from higher margins post-Fukushima that should flow into the accounts as soon as 2012," the bank said in a recent report.
Coal is forecast to increase in its competitiveness against gas, Société Générale said in a research note on Tuesday. "Demand for imports [of coal] will in our view keep on increasing, even if more slowly," analyst Emmanuel Fages said with reference to the expected recession in the Eurozone throughout 2012.
The gas value chain is integrating as upstream companies such as Gazprom and Taqa have an incentive to venture beyond their midstream activities into gas-to-power. "Upstream players - producers of oil and gas – have an incentive to go downstream," Sybren Hettinga, head of European gas structuring at Cargill, told 'Gas-to-Power Journal' in an interview.
The Russian gas giant Gazprom and Essen-based RWE are in negotiations to form a joint venture (JV) on power generation, an RWE spokesperson confirmed to 'Gas-to-Power Journal' today. "We do not comment on the status of negations," he said, adding joint projects in gas-to-power would be "one of the options".