Stockpiles of domestic U.S. gas production will reach an all-time high in 2020, as drilling companies keep producing record volumes even though the coronavirus crippled domestic demand. Exporting excess LNG is not easy as Europe is in lockdown, but the first US LNG cargo for more than a year is heading for the Chinese port of Tianjin.
Rapidly falling oil prices since March 18, when Saudi Arabia started to flood the market, have pulled down seasonal gas and wholesale power prices in the UK. According to Cornwall Insights, Brent crude oil prices plunged over 60% so far in 2020, with seasonal gas and power contracts shedding 32.7% and 21.1%, respectively.
Industry lockdowns, caused by the coronavirus, have slashed electricity demand in most countries by around 15%. In Spain and California, where grid operators have to balance a substantially higher share of variable renewables, the lockdown “fast forwarded these power systems 10 years into the future,” the International Energy Agency (IAE) commented.
Though short-term profits of power and water utilities are hit by the lockdowns of energy-intensive industries to contain the coronavirus pandemic, investors are seeing energy companies as “safe havens” as a recession looms large and stock markets plunge. Amid falling bond yields, investors turn to steady payouts from regulated utilities.
North American shale-focused oil and gas producers are found to have spent $189 billion more on drilling and other capital expenses over the past decade than they generated from selling oil and gas. Wild-caters are struggling to pay off their debts which could trigger write-downs or bankruptcies, analysts warn.
Manufacturing is resuming in China but the recovery from the coronavirus lockdown still needs to translate in a substantial rise in energy demand. The rebound is patchy, Kpler data shows, with LNG imports having rebounded to 1.5 million tons in the first week of February – just to fall off again to less than 0.5 million last week.
Economists see the corona-struck German economy shrink between 4.5% and 9% this year, pushing down energy demand and fuel use which lowers emissions well below targets. Though the German government pledged some €550 billion in ‘virus aid’ to shore up companies, economists at IfW and RWI still anticipate a full-blown recession.
Corona-struck Italy has seen demand for natural gas plunge 8% from the previous week, with similar declines likely in other EU countries as national government impose lockdowns to contain the virus. Industrial demand is “particularly volatile,” while gas generators will “bear the brunt of demand loss,” Wood Mackenzie says, as a carbon price decline is bolstering coal.
Fallouts of the corona pandemic could slow South Korea’s electricity consumption by nearly 2% this year as manufacturing, exports and private consumption grind to a near-halt. Fitch Solutions says that Korea’s manufacturing sector is hit hard due to its large exposure to Chinese supply chains in the first half of 2020.
Volatility in oil and natural gas trading has risen sharply after OPEG and Russia failed to agree on production cuts – despite demand destruction due to the Covid-19 outbreak. Traded volumes for energy futures at the derivatives marketplace CME reached a daily record of 6.8 million as traders strive to hedge their positions.
News in Brief
BelGAS launches new pressure regulator
May 29 – BelGAS has introduced its new P1098 High-Capacity Pressure Reducing Regulator, a large-volume regulator for natural gas, propane and other fuels. The pilot-operated device has a large-area actuator diaphragm, allowing for fast and accurate response to modulating gas flow conditions. It is adaptable for low to extra-high pressure—up to 400 psi main valve inlet.
GE to sell lightning business
May 28 – GE has signed a definitive agreement to sell its lighting business to Savant Systems, a provider of smart homes. CEO H. Lawrence Culp called the divestment “an important step in the transformation of GE into a more focused industrial company.” The transaction is expected to close in mid-2020.
China’s fuel demand recovers
May 27 – The Chinese government has lifted restrictions on private travel since April which pushed up demand for transport fuels. Gasoline demand has recovered particularly fast and is expected to return to last year’s levels by June 2020. Wood Mackenzie estimates gasoline consumption to reach 3.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second quarter, down just a 0.8% year on year. Diesel or gasoil demand is expected to reach 3.4 million b/d in Q2 2020, a 3% decline year-on-year. Overall, China’s oil demand is seen rise a “modest” 13.6 million bpd, or 2.3%, in the second half of 2020.
Wärtsilä to retrofit CHP in Spain
May 26 – The Finish engine maker Wärtsilä has bagged an order to supply and install a 34SG gas-fuelled engine generating set for Rofeica Energia's combined heat and power plant in Barcelona, Spain. The installation of the gas engine will allow Rofeica to switch the CHP from heavy fuel oil to gas-fuelled operation, reducing emissions.
New York body rejects William’s plans for gas pipeline expansion
May 21 – New York’s and New Jersey’s state bodies for environmental conservation have rejected Williams’ plans for the Northeast Supply Enhancement project, designed to transport 400 million cubic feet per day of gas from Pennsylvania to New York. The state bodies had already denied wetland permits in 2019, but Williams pipeline subsidiary Transco filed another application with the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), arguing firm services under the project were agreed with UK’s National Grid for customers in New York City districts of Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island and Long Island.
UK inflation at 4-year low amid falling energy costs
May 20 – The rate of inflation in the UK has fallen to a four-year low as the pandemic pushed down global oil and fuel prices which translate into lower wholesale power prices. The consumer price index fell to an annual rate of 0.8% in April, down from 1.5% in March, according to the Office for National Statistics.
Deficit grows in German green energy fund
May 19 – German regional grid operator TransnetBW has warned of a growing shortfall in the country’s fund for green energy sources, financed under the so-called renewable energy (EEG) levy. TransnetBW, the TSO in southwest Germany, said “due to the EEG cost allocations defined for 2020, we anticipate there will be a negative year end bank account balance in the high three-digit million euro range for 2020.”
Spanish gas companies ‘resilient’
May 18 – Spain’s regulated gas companies “should prove to be resilient” to external shocks arising from coronavirus containment measures, Standard & Poor’s analysis finds, calculating with an average drop in EBITBA at less than 3% in 2020. A new remuneration framework for 2021-2026, recently enacted by the Spanish government, provides enhanced visibility rated grid operators amid the pandemic.
German electricity prices second highest in EU
May 15 – Taxes and the renewable energy surcharge have pushed up Germany’s household electricity prices to the second highest level in Europe, topped only by prices in Denmark. While Danish households paid 29.2 Euros per 100 kWh on average in the second half of 2019, prices in Germany averaged 28.7 Euros, according to the EU statistics office Eurostat.
Calpine’s Q1 earnings fall
May 14 – Calpine, America’s largest generator of electricity from gas and geothermal, has reported a net income of $128 million for the first quarter of 2020, down from $175 million in the prior year period. Lower commodity margins and unfavourable change in income taxes were partially offset by earnings from hedge positions for the three month ending March 31.
Siemens to supply hybrid plant in the Philippines
May 13 – Berkley Energy has contracted Siemens Energy to build a hybrid power project on the island of Mindoro in the Philippines. The project links 16 MW wind power with battery storage, stabilizing energy supply in a remote location with a weak link to the grid and reducing its dependence on diesel.
U.S. energy emissions fall
May 12 – Energy-related carbon emissions in the United States have fallen more than energy consumption, down 2.8% over the course of last year to 5,130 million metric tons (MMmt). Power sector emissions were down 145 MMmt, due to a switch from coal to gas and renewables. In April 2020, emissions experienced another unprecedented fall in due to Covid-19 lockdowns.
MAN expands Omincare concept
March 11 – MAN Energy Solutions’ service brand has extended its ‘PrimeServ Omnicare’ concept from turbomachinery to the marine and power segments. The one-stop service solution is now also applicable for maintenance of third-party machinery, including engines, turbochargers and related auxiliaries.
MIVOLT launches cooling fluid
May 7 – MIVOLT, part of the British company M&I Materials, has launched two specialist fluids to improve cooling efficiency at data centres. The electricity demand of data centres is forecast to rise to 20% of global supply to accommodate lifestyle changes like 5G internet network, autonomous vehicles and bitcoin mining.
Germany adds 1,300 km to power grid
May 6 – Germany has made progress in expanding its strained power grid. According to the Federal Network Agency (BNetzA), over 1,300 kilometres of new power transmission lines have been built and another 830km approved. A further 3,600km are planned to be built by 2030 to alleviate grid bottlenecks and allow transporting rising volumes of offshore wind southbound.
Oman nationalizes first IPP
May 5 – Manah Power, the first privately-run Independent Power Project (IPP) in Oman, has been transferred to state ownership, following the expiry of a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) between United Power Company and state-owned OPWP. Manah IPP was developed under Build-Own-Operate-Transfer (BOOT) model, which stipulates an eventual nationalization of the assets – a feature absent in subsequent IPPs.
U.S inventories at record highs
May 4 – Inventories for crude oil and natural gas have reached a new record high in the United States, as fuel demand declines both for transport and the electric power sector. From March 13 – when a national emergency was declared due to the Covid-19 pandemic – to April 24, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 74 million barrels, or 16%, according to government figures. The acute scarcity of crude storage on April 20 led to a sell-off of future contracts at negative prices.
